Abstract
Recent cross-sectional studies of population migration patterns have consistently failed to find any relationship between the economic conditions prevalent in an area and the propensity of its inhabitants to emigrate. Changes in the rate of out-migration apparently occur only slowly as the age composition and mobility history of the population change. Thus, in the short run, changes in out-migration are small and contribute little to changes in net migration. This article tests this “model” of the migration process by making a time series analysis of gross and net migration between Japanese prefectures. We find that, among rural areas, changes in out-migration are a consistently significant component of changes in net migration. If changes in net migration reflect changes in economic conditions in these areas, then one can only conclude that the latter do have an effect on out-migration rates, an effect which is missed by cross-sectional studies. Beale's graphical analysis, which is also cross-sectional, is a notable exception and would have predicted our results.
Published Version
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