On the connection between large-scale atmospheric circulation and winter GPCP precipitation over the Mediterranean region for the period 1980-2017

Abstract

Abstract The influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on winter precipitation over the Mediterranean region is studied with the use of monthly 2.5° × 2.5° ERA-Interim 500 and 1000 hPa geopotential heights and GPCP-v2.3 precipitation, for the period 1980–2017. At first, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied both to geopotential heights and precipitation datasets and the main modes of inter-annual variations are found. Then, these modes are investigated through Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) to identify the centers of action of the lower and the middle troposphere that control precipitation variability over the Mediterranean region. Three statistically significant canonical pairs are found. The first one, in the North Atlantic, controls precipitation over western Asia Minor, northern Libya and the western Iberian Peninsula. Τhe second mode corresponds to the see-saw between Greenland and central Europe and controls precipitation over the northern Mediterranean region. The third one is located north of Britain and controls precipitation over NW Africa and northern France. For each canonical pair, the mean geopotential heights and precipitation anomaly patterns for the four (10%) years with the highest and the lowest canonical scores are constructed, confirming the results of CCA. Moreover, the correlation between the canonical scores and the indices of the large-scale atmospheric oscillations, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Sea – Caspian Pattern (NCP) and the East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR), was studied.