Abstract
Abstract Historical (1901–79) temperature and precipitation data for four Illinois stations were used to determine the frequency with which summer and winter averages for periods of various length (i.e., different climatic normals) are closest to the value for the next year, and hence its best predictor. The normal achieving the highest frequency in this regard is considered the best for characterizing the recent climate for a given point in time and assessing the abnormality of the following year. Normals for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years were investigated, along with the 30-year ones generally used. Five-year normals most frequently provided the closest estimate of the next year's value for both parameters in both seasons. Ten-year normals also have a high probability of being the best predictors, whereas 20-year normals have a particularly low probability of such success. The standard 30-year normals also perform poorly in this regard. These results contrast strongly with earlier suggestions that 15–25 ye...
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