On opportunities and challenges to conserve the African baobab under present and future climates in Benin (West Africa)

Abstract

African baobab (Adansonia digitata) is an agroforestry species used by local people for many purposes such as food, medicine, craft, etc. It is uncertain how climate change will impact the suitability of the habitat for the species in Benin. This study aimed to assess the present-day distribution and forecast the probable impact of future climate, and provide sustainable management strategies for the species in Benin. Records of the species were gathered both from fieldwork and through available databases. Environmental data comprised both climatic and soil layers. We transferred the present-day models into future climates under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using Maxent software. Our results showed high suitability of the Benin territory for African baobab in the present. In addition, high stability of suitable areas was observed for the species in the future across Benin. However, some protected areas are predicted not to effectively conserve the species in the future. We believe that both ex-situ and in-situ conservation measures will help to maintain the African baobab population in the future.