Abstract

An enduring myth accepted by all Orthodox and heterodox economists is that it was Richard Kahn who discovered and originated the concept of the multiplier. Kahn then supposedly showed Keynes how the multiplier concept could be specified mathematically so as to provide hard support for Keynes’s views in the late 1920’s about increased initial government spending on public infrastructure generating much larger increases in total spending than the original injection, leading to decreasing levels of unemployment. There are three major problems with this story. First, Kahn, himself, in a 1936 response to Hans Neisser in the Review of Economics and Statistics stated that most of his ideas about the multiplier concept came from Keynes. Second,the mathematical and logical development of the multiplier concept had already been formalized and formulated precisely by Keynes in 1921 on p. 315 in footnote 1 of the A Treatise on Probability in section 8 of chapter 26. Third, Keynes provided an arithmetic example of the mathematical technique worked out in the A Treatise on Probability in May,1929. There is simply no foundation for the myth, promoted by Joan Robinson, that Kahn was the author of the multiplier concept. Kahn went along with Robinson because he was involved in a 54 year old relationship with Joan Robinson. Keynes taught Kahn the theory of the multiplier concept and left it up to Kahn to write a full blown article on it, which was then published by Keynes in the June,1931 issue of the Economic Journal.

Highlights

  • J M Keynes had already completely developed the technical, mathematical and logical framework of analysis for the concept of the multiplier in his A Treatise on Probability in 1921 long before Richard Kahn came to Cambridge in 1927 at the age of 22

  • Keynes did not have the time or inclination to publish a full blown, academic article giving a completely worked out arithmetic application of the mathematical theory of the multiplier in the EJ Keynes delegated this task to Kahn

  • Kent showed that Keynes had made an arithmetic error in his arithmetic example of the mathematical theory of the multiplier

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Summary

Introduction

J M Keynes had already completely developed the technical, mathematical and logical framework of analysis for the concept of the multiplier in his A Treatise on Probability in 1921 long before Richard Kahn came to Cambridge in 1927 at the age of 22. Kent showed that Keynes had made an arithmetic error in his arithmetic example of the mathematical theory of the multiplier. Keynes privately showed Kahn sometime between May, 1929 and June 1931 that every application of the multiplier involved the mathematical theory in the A Treatise on Probability in 1921. Keynes’s discussion of the logical theory of the multiplier on pp.122123 of the General Theory is a summary that is based on Keynes’s p.315 analysis in the A Treatise on Probability from 1921. Kahn, whose share in the historic achievement cannot have fallen very short of co-authorship!” (Trevithick, 1994; Samuelson 1963; Schumpeter, 1954), has no support

Technical developments published by Keynes in 1921
Consider Keynes’s analysis on page 315 of the TP
Conclusion
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