On governance in the long-term vegetation process: How to discover the rules?

Abstract

Ecological practice is telling us that to identify Nature’s rules, we should look for regularities in the resulting effects. Hidden rules are involved and the effects are manifested by compositional, functional, and structural transitions. This paper’s focus is on two conjectures regarding the governance of specific transition components, the first supposedly under global co-ordination, and the second under superimposed site specific instability oscillations. The reality of any apparent regularity in these is the sole condition for the regularity’s acceptance as a rule. Reality is testable but in retrospect only, based on time series analyses. Since long pollen spectra supply the evidence, the time period involved is measured in thousands of years. For maximal usefulness, a spectrum should have a long period length, dated horizons intensely sampled at short time steps, and precisely identified taxa. Period length and time step width matter because both may have a masking effect on the regularities. There is, of course, a natural limit for period length, which is set by the age of the pollen bearing sediments. We completed the analysis of 23 spectra using techniques deemed suitable for testing the conjectures. The spectra originated from sites in the Americas where we found suitable spectra in sufficient numbers and in geographic contiguity from the Arctic region to the Antarctic. The presented results have clear indications that the two conjectures identify real rules. The main body of the paper narrates the analyses and provides explanations. Informative materials, too voluminous for inclusion in the paper, are made available on the Internet at URL: www.vegetationdynamics.com linking to “Appendices Ta”.