On climate model simulations of the large‐scale meteorology associated with California heat waves

Abstract

AbstractPrevious work considered how well the large‐scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with California Central Valley heat waves are captured by a climate model. Recent work found two distinct types of LSMPs and key parcel trajectories occurring prior to heat wave onset. This study searches for those two types of heat waves in two additional reanalyses and in historical simulations by 14 climate models. The reanalyses develop both types with similar properties; their differences are used as a conservative estimate of acceptable differences between data sets. All the models develop heat waves of both types, but the models vary quite a bit in the separation between the two types, the magnitudes of the two types, and the frequency of occurrence of the two types. The best models match a third to a half of the properties found in reanalyses. Models tend to have lower valued projections onto the two types than reanalyses, consistent with a systematic tendency to center the hottest 850 hPa temperatures onshore instead of just offshore. Models of higher horizontal resolution tend to simulate better the two types. There is some evidence that models with a low top (with relatively poorly resolved stratosphere) also simulate the clusters better.