ON CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF UNPRECEDENTED RUBLE EXCHANGE GROWTH

Abstract

We provide an analysis of real effective exchange rate dynamics in Russia throughout the last decade. Authors analysed the causes and consequences of real effective exchange growth and assessed how Russian ruble real effective exchange rate comply with its equilibrium level. Authors present results of empiric analysis of relationship between real effective exchange rate and labour productivity in industry of 20 european, asian countries and Russia. The result of this writing was the formulation of key copyright conclusions, namely: 1. The price level in the country (and the level of the real exchange rate of the national currency) is a key factor of competitiveness. Accordingly, the real exchange rate of the national currency - is one of the most important policy tools. 2. The ruble today seriously overvalued. Overvaluation of the national currency relative to the equilibrium level is extremely harmful to the economy. Less recognized, but also widespread YaV it possible to the idea that an undervalued currency is a prerequisite for rapid economic growth. 3. A direct consequence of the growth of the real exchange rate in the past 12 years has been the growth of the external debt of the private sector. 4. Restraining the growth rate of the national currency - is also a common practice for countries who are concerned about the level of competitiveness. But Russia is this day-the only country of the G-20, which is impossible to control the REER. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-3-4