On applicability of the RTL prognostic algorithms and energy estimation to Sakhalin seismicity

Abstract

Premonitory phases (seismic quiescence and foreshock activity) have been retrospectively identified before the Neftegorsk and Uglegorsk earthquakes using the RTL technique. The probabilities that these phases were accidental are less than 1 and 2%, respectively. This allows an optimistic assessment of the possibility of applying this technique to seismicity at Sakhalin. The estimates of the time and energy class for the two earthquakes, using a model of self-organized seismic criticality, proved to be unconvincing because obvious acceleration of the seismic process prior to these seismic events did not occur. The applicability of this approach to the seismicity at Sakhalin should be tested for future large earthquakes. The regional Sakhalin catalog for 1980–2000, with a lowest completely reported energy class of K = 8 (lent by the Geophysical Service, Russian Academy of Sciences) was used as the database for this study.