OIL PRODUCT MARKET TRENDS AND FORECASTS

Abstract

The purpose of the research. The relevance of the article is due to the decline in the consumption of petroleum products in the world and in Russia in particular, as well as changes in the structure of demand for petroleum products. The crisis related to the COVID-19 factor had a significant impact on the oil and petroleum products market. Consequently, this article is aimed at identifying the prospects for the development of the oil product market. Results. The leading approach to the study of this problem is the analysis of current indicators of the oil product market, which allows a comprehensive review of current market trends and prospects for its development. Based on the analysis, it can be concluded that in 2020, the volume of primary processing is expected to decrease, which will not suffer as much as the production of crude oil. However, all markets are expected to recover in 2021. It should be noted that the production of products aimed at the domestic market (automobile gasoline and diesel fuel) has increased in recent years. Fuel oil and gas oil production, which is export-oriented, decreased compared to 2014. Exports of petroleum products such as motor gasoline, diesel fuel, bitumen, and vacuum gas oil have not changed significantly over the past few years, while exports of fuel oil have declined significantly. The reduction in production and export of fuel oil is associated with a drop in the attractiveness of fuel oil exports as a result of an increase in export duties. In the future, diesel fuel production and exports are projected to increase, while fuel oil production and exports will continue to decline. The article has a practical value for companies working in the oil refining industry, public and private investors.