Abstract
Global models of biophysical suitability for oil palm consistently rank Brazil as having the greatest potential for expansion, with estimates as high as 238 Mha of suitable lands. In 2010, Brazil launched the Sustainable Palm Oil Production Program (SPOPP) to incentivize oil palm development without deforestation on as much as 30 Mha. Here we examine oil palm expansion before and after the SPOPP’s launch. In Pará, the major oil palm producing state in Brazil, we analyze the extent and change in oil palm cultivation from 2006−2014 using satellite imagery, ground-truthed verification, site-based interviews, and rural environmental (land) registration data. Between 2006−2014, oil palm area (≥9 ha) expanded >200% to ~219 000 ha. Of the ~148 000 ha of oil palm developed, ~91% converted pasturelands while ~8% replaced natural vegetation, including intact and secondary forests. Although >80% of all oil palm parcels rest <0.5 km from intact forests, direct conversion of intact forests declined from ~4% pre-SPOPP (2006−2010) to <1% post-SPOPP (2010−2014).Despite low and declining deforestation rates associated with oil palm expansion in Pará, our results also show a low area of oil palm development overall compared with reported land suitability. To explore potential contributing factors, we conducted semi-structured interviews with researchers, company representatives, and government officials involved in the sector to characterize the perceived factors influencing oil palm development and the role of agro-ecological suitability mapping among them. Interviews indicated that: (1) individual effects of suitability mapping efforts to encourage oil palm expansion on cleared areas, i.e. without deforestation, cannot be disentangled from pre-existing public and private deforestation reduction initiatives; and, (2) socio-economic constraints, e.g. high relative production costs and limited familiarity with this crop, appear to partially explain the major discrepancy between estimated potential suitable areas with realized oil palm development.
Highlights
IntroductionAgricultural expansion has been a major source of deforestation across tropical regions (Geist and Lambin 2002, Rudel et al 2009, Gibbs et al 2010, Henders et al 2015)
Despite low and declining deforestation rates associated with oil palm expansion in Para, our results show a low area of oil palm development overall compared with reported land suitability
We build on their work by first increasing the area evaluated in Brazil, and selecting a historical baseline designed to link changes in land use conversion patterns with local policy initiatives aimed to enhance oil palm production that is decoupled from deforestation
Summary
Agricultural expansion has been a major source of deforestation across tropical regions (Geist and Lambin 2002, Rudel et al 2009, Gibbs et al 2010, Henders et al 2015). Cultivated area for oil palm, in particular, expanded four-fold between the 1960s and the mid2000s, as the crop transformed tropical landscapes, especially in Indonesia and Malaysia (Kongsager and Reenberg 2012, Carlson et al 2012b, Gunarso et al 2013, Henders et al 2015). Between 13%−90% of studied oil palm expansion was observed to have cleared forested lands across several tropical countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Colombia, and Peru (Gutierrez-Velez et al 2011, Wicke et al 2011, Miettinen et al 2012, Carlson et al 2012b, 2012a, Gunarso et al 2013, Castiblanco et al 2013, Margono et al 2014, Vijay et al 2016, Furumo and Aide 2017). Among potential oil palm producing countries, global biophysical models suggest Brazil has the largest remaining potential land area suitable for oil palm production, with estimates ranging from 30−42 Mha without forests (Ramalho Filho et al 2010, Pirker et al 2016) to 228 Mha including forests (Stickler et al 2007). Given historical links between deforestation and oil palm development worldwide, questions remain whether Brazil would be successful in decoupling its oil palm growth from deforestation and promote oil palm production without imperiling Brazil’s progress in reducing Amazonian deforestation
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