Abstract

This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation, using economics students, that shows the characteristics of oil exploration. Oil discovery in the US started low, increased, and then declined again. One explanation for this small-large-small sequence of discovery is the role of information. Initial information scarcity causes high exploration costs and low discovery. Eventually information increases, pushing exploration costs down and discovery up. Finally, scarcity of resources pushes costs back up again and discovery down. The experimental economics simulation explained here shows this to be the case.

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