Oil demand in transportation sector in Iran: an efficiency and income asymmetric modelling approach

Abstract

AbstractThe transportation sector in Iran consumed about 52 per cent of oil demand in 2005. This high consumption rate of oil in the sector is fuelled by many factors including fiscal policies structural, as well as infrastructural factors. The vehicle ownership (intensity), efficiency of vehicles, public transportation, transport infrastructure, per capita income, cost of vehicle use, and fuel prices are among the factors which are shaping the trend of oil demand in this very important sector. Energy in Iran is heavily subsidized and in the transportation sector, the subsidy amounted to $3.59 billion in 1996, rising to $12.43 billion in 2005.Logistic model of vehicle ownership is estimated as a function of real per capita income, length of roads and other explanatory variables. Per capita income is a cumulative non‐declining variable incorporating the idea of income asymmetric. Oil demand is estimated as a function of fuel efficiency, age of car fleet, per capita income and vehicle ownership per 1,000 inhabitants. Oil demand elasticities of vehicle ownership and fuel efficiency are 1.29 and 1.11, respectively, confirming that these variables have major impacts on oil demand in the transportation sector. It is concluded that rationing of fuel or upward price adjustment merely cannot curb the fast growth of oil demand in the sector. A policy package including mandatory fuel efficiency standards, scraping of old vehicles, upward fuel price, and development of public transportation could lead to better management of fuel consumption in this sector.