Offshore Enters a New Era

Abstract

2019 OTC review Digitalization and automation were key topics in the panel and technical sessions at this year’s Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) as the iconic event celebrated its 50th anniversary. More than 59,000 attendees participated in the conference, which was held 6–9 May in Houston. OTC launched its golden anniversary with a wide-ranging panel discussion on the current viability of the offshore sector and how digitalization will change it in the future. Total’s Energy Outlook 2040 proposes two distinct scenarios of the energy future: a momentum scenario, in which oil demand is dominated by transportation and petrochemicals, and a rupture scenario, which sees a massive shift in public policy and the growth of renewables. Either way, “our industry has a major role to play in climate change issues,” said Arnaud Breuillac, president of exploration and production for Total. The global energy mix is changing, he said, but the question is how rapidly, especially regarding use of electric vehicles and the growth of electrification in developing countries. Given the projected population rise and the fact that 1.5 billion people do not have access to energy now, increased use of natural gas and renewables is the “right approach to stabilize the energy system,” Breuillac said. The 21st century will likely be the “century of electricity,” he added. “It is clear that the pace of change does not lie entirely in our hands,” he said about the use of hydrocarbons in the future, but will be influenced by the public and policymakers as well. For now, Total is pursuing projects on the low end of the cost curve while trying to reduce its carbon footprint from production to customer delivery. Whether the industry should pursue a future of reduced hydrocarbon production and use appears to be a dilemma, said panel moderator Scott Tinker, director of the Bureau of Economic Geology at The University of Texas at Austin. If climate change is the worst problem, then reduced hydrocarbon use could be part of the solution; but if poverty is the globe’s biggest issue, then hydrocarbons are undoubtedly part of the solution. Although the industry “does produce a lot of CO2,” Tinker said, access to readily available and affordable energy also alleviates hunger and provides clothing, shelter, and clean water, and allows access to education, health care, and medical services, among other things. Offering more perspective, Tinker noted that although there is a lot of talk about the growth in wind and power for energy, their use is but a fraction of demand for oil, natural gas, and coal. Over the past several decades, carbon emissions in the US and Europe have been flat to slightly down, while emissions in Asia have grown sharply, he said.