Occurrence, probable causes, and management of forest wildfires in the Northern Highlands of Pakistan

Abstract

Pakistan is forest-deficient and cannot afford forest losses associated with large-scale wildfire destruction. The Northern Mountainous Range (NMR) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province has substantial forest cover, yet complex human-environment interactions have created vast fire-prone areas. This study examines the historical and environmental drivers of wildfires in the NMR and prospective management strategies to reduce their devastating impacts. We reviewed news articles and surveyed local fire management offices to obtain records of fire occurrences to develop a spatial model. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to evaluate wildfire probability based on climatic influences and found district Swat and neighboring areas in the NMR region to be a forest fire hotspot due mainly to factors of precipitation. Furthermore, an analysis was conducted on regional environmental governance, encompassing legislative factors that impede fire safety and deficient fire management budgets. In addition, we detailed the recognized causes of forest fires in the area, revealing a significant human contribution. There is a rising consensus that governance regionally, locally, and within communities must comprehensively handle the compounding and complicated concerns surrounding wildfires. This extensive analysis seeks to impact regional management to support fire protection through actions to update the forest policy, encourage participatory planning and governance at the local level, prepare for future forest fires by allocating enough budget for emergency disasters, raise public awareness, and educate the public about forest fire dangers.