Observed changes in temperature extremes over China–Pakistan Economic Corridor during 1980–2016

Abstract

This study uses the daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets of 48 meteorological stations to assess the observed changes in temperature extremes over China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) during 1980–2016. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall, Sen's slope estimator, least squares method, and two‐tailed simple t‐test methods were used to assess the trend in nine temperature extreme indices. The results of the study indicated that the trends in annual mean anomalies of cold nights, cold days, and frost days significantly decreased at the rates of −1.09, −1.58, and −1.05 day/decade, respectively. The number of warm nights, warm days, and summer days exhibited significant positive trends at the rates of 1.49, 1.04, and 4.32 day/decade, respectively. In addition, the trends of the warmest day and coldest day also increased significantly at the rates of 0.45 and 0.51 °C/decade, respectively. The trend of diurnal temperature range decreased significantly with −0.35 °C/decade. The spatial distribution of temperature extreme indices indicated that the number of cold nights, cold days, and diurnal temperature range have been decreased, while the trends of warm nights, warm days, summer days, warmest day, and coldest day have been increased over the whole country. Large‐scale atmospheric circulation changes derived from ERA‐Interim reanalysis show that a weak (strong) wind pressure, increasing (decreasing) geopotential height, and rapid warming (cooling) over the northern (southern) region have contributed to the changes in temperature extremes in Pakistan to some extent. With respect to elevation‐dependent warming (EDW), the trends of cold nights, warm days, summer days, warmest day, and diurnal temperature range showed significant positive correlations with increasing elevation. However, the trends of cold days, warm nights, frost days, and coldest day showed significant negative relationships with increasing elevation. The findings of this study will be helpful in the adaptation of climate change and mitigation of climatological disasters in the region. The study recommends that future studies should investigate the natural and anthropogenic drivers of temperature extremes and the possible mechanism of EDW in the CPEC region.