Abstract
This chapter presents current knowledge of observed and projected impacts from extreme weather events, based on recorded events and their losses, as well as studies that project future impacts from anthropogenic climate change. The attribution of past changes in such impacts focuses on the three key drivers: changes in extreme weather hazards that can be due to natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, changes in exposure and vulnerability, and risk reduction efforts. The chapter builds on previous assessments of attribution of extreme weather events, to drivers of changes in weather hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Most records of losses from extreme weather consist of information on monetary losses, while several other types of impacts are underrepresented, complicating the assessment of losses and damages. Studies into drivers of losses from extreme weather show that increasing exposure is the most important driver through increasing population and capital assets. Residual losses (after risk reduction and adaptation) from extreme weather have not yet been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. For the Loss and Damage debate, this implies that overall it will remain difficult to attribute this type of losses to greenhouse gas emissions. For the future, anthropogenic climate change is projected to become more important for driving future weather losses upward. However, drivers of exposure and especially changes in vulnerability will interplay. Exposure will continue to lead to risk increases. Vulnerability on the other hand may be further reduced through disaster risk reduction and adaptation. This would reduce additional losses and damages from extreme weather. Yet, at the country scale and particularly in developing countries, there is ample evidence of increasing risk, which calls for significant improvement in climate risk management efforts.
Highlights
Impacts from anthropogenic climate change are often equated with impacts from weather-related natural hazards, such as floods, droughts and windstorms
The discussion on Loss and Damage from climate change warrants a discussion on the extent to which increases in impacts from extreme weather have already occurred, what impacts can be expected in the future, and which losses cannot be prevented or reduced through risk reduction and adaptation
Current understanding shows that the changes in impacts from extreme weather hazards are largely moderated by the extent to which humans and assets are exposed to these hazards, and to what extent they are vulnerable or sensitive to these hazards
Summary
Impacts from anthropogenic climate change are often equated with impacts from weather-related natural hazards, such as floods, droughts and windstorms. Current understanding shows that the changes in impacts from extreme weather hazards are largely moderated by the extent to which humans and assets are exposed to these hazards, and to what extent they are vulnerable or sensitive to these hazards. This implies that apart from the actual occurrence of the hazards, the level of impacts—relevant to the Loss and Damage debate—is influenced by non-climatic factors. Vulnerability and exposure may change because of adaptation and risk reduction actions that increase the protection from weather hazards and reduce sensitivity to these extremes that would otherwise results in negative impacts. Planning that helps to reduce exposure, as well as the absorption of losses through risk transfer such as insurance, thereby changing vulnerability
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