Abstract
This study examines changes in annual and seasonal mean (minimum and maximum) temperatures variations in Jordan during the 20th century. The analyses focus on the time series records at the Amman Airport Meteorological (AAM) station. The occurrence of abrupt changes and trends were examined using cumulative sum charts (CUSUM) and bootstrapping and the Mann-Kendall rank test. Statistically significant abrupt changes and trends have been detected. Major change points in the mean minimum (night-time) and mean maximum (day-time) temperatures occurred in 1957 and 1967, respectively. A minor change point in the annual mean maximum temperature also occurred in 1954, which is essential agreement with the detected change in minimum temperature. The analysis showed a significant warming trend after the years 1957 and 1967 for the minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively. The analysis of maximum temperatures shows a significant warming trend after the year 1967 for the summer season with a rate of temperature increase of 0.038°C/year. The analysis of minimum temperatures shows a significant warming trend after the year 1957 for all seasons. Temperature and rainfall data from other stations in the country have been considered and showed similar changes.
Highlights
World-wide interest in global warming and climate change has led to numerous trend detection studies
This study aims to characterize the occurrence of abrupt changes and trends in minimum and maximum time series temperatures in Jordan
The warming trend is statistically significant for the annual mean minimum temperature at level of significance 0.1; the warming trend is statistically significant during summer season with significance level 0.01
Summary
World-wide interest in global warming and climate change has led to numerous trend detection studies. The successive periods of global warming, cooling and warming in the 20th century show distinctive patterns of temperature change suggestive of roles for both climate forcing and dynamical variability[2]. The increase in the minimum temperatures appeared mainly in USA, former USSR, China and Australia[3,4]. This has been related to several factors such as global warming, increased concentrations of anthropogenic green house gases, aerosols which exert cooling effects on the climate, increased cloud cover and urbanization[5,6]
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