Observations and simulation of winds, surge, and currents on Florida's east coast during hurricane Jeanne (2004)

Abstract

A novel set of measurements of winds, water levels, and currents recorded in September of 2004 captured the landfall of Hurricane Jeanne. The dataset provides a full picture of the meteorology and hydrodynamics associated with Hurricane Jeanne and are used to test the state-of-the-art in numerical modeling of storm surge. A shallow water equations model (ADCIRC) is driven by rigorously modeled winds and astronomic tides to replicate continuous hydrodynamic records at two stations, one in Melbourne Beach (Spessard) and the other inside Port Canaveral (Trident Pier), where instrumentation was located by happenstance. Simulation results represent the time-series of water surface elevations measured in the open coast off Melbourne Beach (Spessard) within 0.05m root mean square error and within 12% of observed maximum surge elevation (1.35m simulated vs. 1.52m measured) and exhibit details induced by a ‘loop’ performed by the hurricane before it made landfall. Prediction of water levels inside Port Canaveral (Trident Pier) is to within 0.06m root mean square error and includes the observed forerunner and peak surge of the hurricane. In regard to nearshore currents off Melbourne Beach (Spessard), the timing of a sudden switch in the direction of the measured (longshore) current is replicated well with the magnitude of the peak current simulated to within 14% of observation (0.96m/s modeled vs. 1.11m/s measured). The capability to accurately simulate the tidal and storm surge hydrodynamics during Hurricane Jeanne provides confidence in using this class of shallow water equations models in coastal engineering practice.