Objective method for analysis of mineral resources supply
 on the example of Russia

Abstract

A forecast of nonfuel mineral production in Russia is
 considered, based on the integration of the expected life
 of specific deposits currently exploited and developed. It
 is shown that mineral safety is fully ensured for copper,
 nickel, lead, tungsten and tin, whose reserves are sufficient
 for their extraction, at least at the current level, for
 40–50 years and there are real prospects for its significant
 growth. The sufficiency of other minerals is much
 lower: for molybdenum and chromium, it is limited to
 about 30 years, and the extraction of zinc and uranium
 in Russia may significantly decrease in 20 years. The situation
 is more difficult with the most liquid solid minerals,
 like gold and diamonds. The commissioning of mining
 enterprises at the developed gold deposits can ensure
 a rapid growth in the production of the precious
 metal in the coming years. However, at the beginning of
 the next decade, the resource base depletion of the Olimpiada
 field and a number of other exploited deposits is
 predicted. The projects currently implemented for the
 development of new fields do not compensate for the lost
 capacity. This may account for a long-term (until the beginning
 of the 2050s) decline in the Russian gold production,
 which may be halved against the current level by
 the end of this period. Such a scenario can only be avoided
 with the intensification of geological exploration in
 the coming years. The earlier decrease in the number of
 diamonds mined in Russia, associated with the depletion
 of reserves of exploited pipes, is predicted (since 2025).
 Unless new deposits are discovered and developed, the
 domestic production of precious stones will steadily decline
 and, in the 2040s, may be reduced fourfold.