O regresso à anormalidade: da guerra na Ucrânia ao surto inflacionista

Abstract

The invasion of Ukraine was a critical juncture on the International Economy with an economic crisis characterised by sudden and unexpected inflation. Before the invasion, economic agents and political actors (at the national, supranational, and international levels) were converted to low and long-term stable inflation. A perceived line of stability was abruptly eroded. Section 1 approaches the immediate causes of soaring inflation. Section 2 addresses the implications of a (then) unexpected inflation, considering the timing of macroeconomic forecasts for 2022. Section 3 explores the microeconomic effects of high and persistent inflation. Section 4 brings the normative dimension into the analysis, going back to the unfinished controversy between the two leading schools of economic thought (Keynesian and monetarist) on the macroeconomic priorities that influence the design of economic policy.