Abstract

Abstract. Numerical models predict that discharge from the polar ice sheets will become the largest contributor to sea-level rise over the coming centuries. However, the predicted amount of ice discharge and associated thinning depends on how well ice sheet models reproduce glaciological processes, such as ice flow in regions of large topographic relief, where ice flows around bedrock summits (i.e. nunataks) and through outlet glaciers. The ability of ice sheet models to capture long-term ice loss is best tested by comparing model simulations against geological data. A benchmark for such models is ice surface elevation change, which has been constrained empirically at nunataks and along margins of outlet glaciers using cosmogenic exposure dating. However, the usefulness of this approach in quantifying ice sheet thinning relies on how well such records represent changes in regional ice surface elevation. Here we examine how ice surface elevations respond to the presence of strong topographic relief that acts as an obstacle by modelling ice flow around and between idealised nunataks during periods of imposed ice sheet thinning. We find that, for realistic Antarctic conditions, a single nunatak can exert an impact on ice thickness over 20 km away from its summit, with its most prominent effect being a local increase (decrease) of the ice surface elevation of hundreds of metres upstream (downstream) of the obstacle. A direct consequence of this differential surface response for cosmogenic exposure dating is a delay in the time of bedrock exposure upstream relative to downstream of a nunatak summit. A nunatak elongated transversely to ice flow is able to increase ice retention and therefore impose steeper ice surface gradients, while efficient ice drainage through outlet glaciers produces gentler gradients. Such differences, however, are not typically captured by continent-wide ice sheet models due to their coarse grid resolutions. Their inability to capture site-specific surface elevation changes appears to be a key reason for the observed mismatches between the timing of ice-free conditions from cosmogenic exposure dating and model simulations. We conclude that a model grid refinement over complex topography and information about sample position relative to ice flow near the nunatak are necessary to improve data–model comparisons of ice surface elevation and therefore the ability of models to simulate ice discharge in regions of large topographic relief.

Highlights

  • IntroductionNumerical ice sheet modelling efforts are aimed at reducing uncertainty by better understanding the processes that lead to sea-level rise, focusing on both shorter (Goelzer et al, 2020; Seroussi et al, 2020) and longer (Pollard and DeConto, 2009; Albrecht et al, 2020) timescales

  • Ongoing changes in climate are already causing significant mass loss and ice-margin retreat of both the Antarctic and the Greenland ice sheets

  • Numerical ice sheet modelling efforts are aimed at reducing uncertainty by better understanding the processes that lead to sea-level rise, focusing on both shorter (Goelzer et al, 2020; Seroussi et al, 2020) and longer (Pollard and DeConto, 2009; Albrecht et al, 2020) timescales

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Summary

Introduction

Numerical ice sheet modelling efforts are aimed at reducing uncertainty by better understanding the processes that lead to sea-level rise, focusing on both shorter (Goelzer et al, 2020; Seroussi et al, 2020) and longer (Pollard and DeConto, 2009; Albrecht et al, 2020) timescales. The importance of bedrock topography (Morlighem et al, 2020) and grid resolution (Durand et al, 2011) have been acknowledged previously and studied for marginal regions of the ice sheet Spatial variations in bedrock topography, as well as the resulting basal and lateral drag exerted at the ice–bedrock interface for different spatial scales, can slow down or even stabilise grounding line retreat (Jamieson et al, 2012, 2014; Åkesson et al, 2018; Jones et al, 2021; Robel et al, 2021). Regions near the ice sheet margin with large subglacial topographic relief, such as the overridden mountain ranges that fringe the glaciated cratons of Greenland and East Antarctica (Howat et al, 2014; Burton-Johnson et al, 2016), require suitable consideration when evaluating ice loss beyond this century

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