Numerical weather prediction and climate modelling: Challenges and opportunities for improving climate services delivery in Southern Africa

Abstract

Numerical weather predictions (NWP) and climate modelling activities underpin the generation of climate services to different stakeholders. In this study we assess the capabilities of National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NMHSs) of the SADC region in performing NWP and climate modelling activities in support of generation of science-based climate information to the ever-growing number of stakeholders in the region. We first administered an online questionnaire to 15 SADC NMHSs gauging their status in terms of modelling capabilities. The online questionnaire was then followed by site visits to verify the online responses. Finally, we convened a validation workshop with representatives from all visited NMHSs. The results from the survey revealed a great disparity in the region in terms of capacity for performing NWP and climate modelling activities. Only 60% of the NMHSs in the region are either running or testing NWP models. Climate modelling activities are relegated to the second plan as only about 20% of NMHSs are dynamically downscaling seasonal forecasts and generating climate change projections. The challenges impeding running NWP and climate models in the SADC NMHSs are many and include lack of appropriate infrastructure (hardware and software), inadequate meteorological telecommunications and communication systems for rapid data exchange, lack of qualified staff, and insufficient budget to cater for acquisition and maintenance of meteorological equipment. More investment in the Meteorological sector is needed for NMHSs in the SADC region to provide timely and accurate climate information.