Abstract

A wave forecast numerical simulation was performed for Typhoon Lingling around the Korean Peninsula and in the East Asia region using sea winds from 24 members produced by the Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG) of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Significant wave height was observed by the ocean data buoys used to verify data of the ensemble wave model, and the results of the ensemble members were analyzed through probability verification. The forecast performance for the significant wave height improved by approximately 18% in the root mean square error in the three-day lead time compared to that of the deterministic model, and the difference in performance was particularly distinct towards mid-to-late lead times. The ensemble spread was relatively appropriate, even in the longer lead time, and each ensemble model runs were all stable. As a result of the probability verification, information on the uncertainty that could not be provided in the deterministic model could be obtained. It was found that all the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.9 or above, demonstrating good predictive performance, and the ensemble wave model is expected to be useful in identifying and determining hazardous weather conditions.

Highlights

  • The ensemble prediction technique is widely used to compensate for the limitations of deterministic prediction of a deterministic forecast model, which has prediction errors due to the initial conditions of the numerical model and the uncertainty of the prediction model [1,2,3]

  • The ensemble wave model forecast performance for the significant wave height improved by approximately 18% in the root-mean-square error (RMSE) in the 3-day lead time compared to the deterministic forecast model

  • A numerical simulation of wave forecast at the time of Typhoon Lingling moving north was performed using the sea wind forecast field of Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG), and the forecast performance of the ensemble wave model was verified using the significant wave height observed from the ocean data buoy around the Korean Peninsula

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Summary

Introduction

The ensemble prediction technique is widely used to compensate for the limitations of deterministic prediction of a deterministic forecast model, which has prediction errors due to the initial conditions of the numerical model and the uncertainty of the prediction model [1,2,3] This technique performs probabilistic prediction by considering the possibilities for various initial conditions, physical processes, and boundary conditions and includes both the prediction information and information on forecast uncertainty provided by the conventional deterministic forecast model [4,5,6]. It is a prediction technique that is extremely useful, as it can identify the uncertainty in prediction and information on various hazardous weather conditions

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