Abstract
Abstract Numerical simulations are used to study transitions between boundary layer rolls and more cellular convective structures observed during a lake-effect snow event over Lake Michigan on 17 December 1983. Weak lake-effect nonroll convection was observed near the eastern (downwind) shore preceding passage of a secondary cold front. After frontal passage horizontal wind speeds in the convective boundary layer increased, with subsequent development of linear convective patterns. Thereafter the convective pattern became more three-dimensional as low-level wind speeds decreased. Little directional shear was observed in any of the wind profiles. Numerical simulations with the Advanced Regional Prediction System model were initialized with an upwind sounding and radar-derived wind profiles corresponding to each of the three convective structure regimes. Model-derived reflectivity fields were in good agreement with the observed regimes. These simulations differed primarily in the initial wind speed profiles...
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