Abstract
Using a dynamical model (VECTRI) for malaria transmission that accounts for the influence of population and climatic conditions, malaria transmission dynamics is investigated for a highly endemic region (state of Odisha) in India. The model is first calibrated over the region, and subsequently numerical simulations are carried out for the period 2000–2013. Using both model and observations we find that temperature, adult mosquito population, and infective biting rates have increased over this period, and the malaria vector abundance is higher during the summer monsoon season. Regionally, the intensity of malaria transmission is found to be higher in the north, central and southern districts of Odisha where the mosquito populations and the number of infective bites are more and mainly in the forest or mountainous ecotypes. We also find that the peak of the malaria transmission occurs when the monthly mean temperature is in the range of ~28–29 °C, and monthly rainfall accumulation in the range of ~200–360 mm.
Highlights
The model is first calibrated over the region, and subsequently numerical simulations are carried out for the period 2000–2013. Using both model and observations we find that temperature, adult mosquito population, and infective biting rates have increased over this period, and the malaria vector abundance is higher during the summer monsoon season
In the following we present analysis of annual, monthly and daily variations of rainfall, mean surface temperature, mosquito population and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) with an objective to understand transmission dynamics of malaria in Odisha
In this study we find that temperature and rainfall are two key climate drivers that influence malaria vector development, and play a key role in characterizing the intensities of malaria transmission in the state
Summary
It has been observed from the figure that the heaviest rain occurs over the northern parts of Odisha and along with the mountainous southern parts. One key feature of the VECTRI model is that it explicitly accounts for the human population density in the calculation of biting rates and host-to-vector and vector-to-host transmission probabilities for the parasite[20]. Using this model, impact of temperature, rainfall and population density on the transmission dynamics of malaria can be identified. ASTER GLOBAL DEM v2 data (spatial resolution approx. 30 m) is used to produce the Digital Elevation Model map
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