Abstract
Storm surges and waves are key climate-driven parameters affecting the design and operation of ports and other infrastructure on the coast. Reliable predictions of future storm surges and waves are not yet available for the west coast of Canada, and this data gap hinders effective climate risk assessment, planning and adaptation. This paper presents numerical simulations of storm surges and waves in British Columbia coastal waters under a future climate (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario (RCP8.5). The numerical models were first forced by wind and surface pressure fields from the ERA-5 global reanalysis, and calibrated and validated using historical wave and water level records. The models were then driven by atmospheric data from four regional climate models (RCMs) to investigate potential changes in the frequency and magnitude of storm surges and extreme waves over the 21st century. The model outputs were analyzed to determine the potential impacts of climate change on storm surges and wave effects at key ports and transportation assets in western Canada. The study is the first of its kind to utilize unstructured, computational models to simulate storm surges and waves for the entire western Canada coastal region, while maintaining the high spatial resolution in coastal sub-basins needed to capture local dynamic responses.
Highlights
The frequency and magnitude of extreme high water levels influences the maintenance and operational resilience of ports and harbors, affecting cargo-handling and berthing downtime, navigation risks and safety, spill risk and response capacity, and the exposure/resilience of ships and port structures to coastal hazards
We describe a set of numerical models developed to simulate storm surges and extreme waves in British Columbia coastal waters
This paper describes one of the first attempts to numerically investigate the effects of climate change on storm surges and extreme waves on the Pacific coast of Canada, with the objective of supporting improved climate risk assessment for coastal infrastructure
Summary
The frequency and magnitude of extreme high water levels influences the maintenance and operational resilience of ports and harbors, affecting cargo-handling and berthing downtime, navigation risks and safety, spill risk and response capacity, and the exposure/resilience of ships and port structures to coastal hazards (waves, currents, flooding, erosion, and tsunami). The study is the first of its kind to utilize unstructured, computational models to simulate storm surges and waves for the entire western Canada coastal region, while maintaining the high spatial resolution in coastal sub-basins needed to capture local dynamic responses. It is one of the first attempts to utilize the ERA-5 global atmosphere-ocean reanalysis [40], which provides higher temporal and spatial resolutions and promises improved physics over previous. OcNeaenasr-Ccaonnatdinau(oDuFsO, )hoonulrinlye awrcahteivrele[4v3e]l, froercfoorudrstiwdeergeaudgoewsntalotiaodnsedwiftrhoimn ththeemFoidsheleries andoOmcaeina:nPs oCinatnAadtkain(sDoFnO(V)aonncoliunveear,rCchainvaeda[4) 3(s]t,aftoiornfoiduerntiifideer g=a7u7g9e5)s, tVaitcitoonrsiaw(7i1th20in), the moBdaemlfideoldm(a8i5n4:5)P,oainndt PArtinkcinesRounpe(Vrta(n93c5o4u)v. eTrh,eCaarcnhaidvea)co(snttaatiinoend iddaetna tfiofriearll=fo7u7r9s5t)a,tiVoincstoria (71t2h0a)t,sBpaanmnfeideladt l(e8a5s4t5t)h,eapnedrioPdri1n9c7e9Rtou2p0e2r0t. (A93st5r4o)n.oTmhiecaalrtcidheivperecdoincttiaoinnsewdedreatgaenfoerraatelldfour staftoior neascthhsattastipoannunseindgatthleeaCsHt tShteidpael rcioondst1it9u7e9nttod2a0ta2b0a.sAe swtritohntohme IiOcaSl TtiiddealpPraecdkiacgtieo[n4s4]w, ere genanedrattheednfsourbteraacchtedstfartoimonthuesiwnagtetrhleevCeHl rSecotirddasltocoonbstatiitnureenstidduaatlas.bTahsee cwomithputhteedIwOaSteTr idal PcoamlrceekvcpaoeuglgAterneelid[lsz4ibed4wadu]t,haathtaylseanmrtwdetlehtetrrevhyeeredaelnsassrtisudaeumsuaibnadetlddsruawcatcoolatsnetbetdweariplenferrrvoisemeimglasansrwatsihltueyuermrerewerespedaffrreteoertseomrennlbcetoeaevtdtheipvevlrererirsoemtofcicuaosartrrlcoidlelyryssmto[tr1osem,u2pore1rgba,e2ents9saes,,i4enna5alt]tarl.heteoivsvueiedlg(uhMoaiftSlssLi.st)o.Trhme surges, it is recognized that the residuals contain signatures from other sources [1,21,29,45]
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