Abstract
In this study, future probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) based on future meteorological variables produced from three regional climate models (RCMs) of 50-km spatial resolution provided by Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) are projected. In order to estimate future PMPs, the hydro-meteorological method is applied. The key future meteorological variable used to analyze the rate of change of future PMPs is the dew-point temperature. Future 12-h persistence 100-year return period extreme dew-point temperatures obtained from future daily dew-point temperature time series by using the scale-invariance method are applied to estimate future PMPs. As a result of estimating future PMPs using several RCMs and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, the spatial distribution of future PMPs is expected to be similar to that of the present, but PMPs tend to increase in the future. In addition, it can be seen that the difference in PMPs estimated from various RCMs and RCP scenarios is getting bigger in the future. Especially after 2070, the difference has increased even more. In the short term, it is proposed to establish climate change adaptation policies with an 18% increase in PMPs, which is the ensemble average in the future year 2050.
Highlights
The possibility of a large storm event has recently increased
Due to the uncertainty of future projections, it can be seen that the rate of change of future probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) varies depending on which regional climate models (RCMs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenario are applied, and the difference in the rate of change of future PMPs is increasing with the future
(50-km) was applied, it is difficult to say that such a difference of the rate of change of future PMPs is caused only by the difference in spatial resolution, but it is probable that the spatial resolution difference of RCMs may have influenced the difference in future PMPs
Summary
The possibility of a large storm event has recently increased. Hurricane “Harvey”, which has caused great damage to Texas in the United States, is said to be a weather phenomenon that can happen once every 1000 years by American media. Future PMPs are generally estimated using future meteorological variables produced from regional climate models (RCMs). Meteorological Administration (KMA) provides future meteorological variables (12.5-km of spatial resolution and 1-day of temporal resolution) produced from Hadgem3-RA (RCM) that dynamically downscaled Hedgem2-AO (GCM). More information on this source can be found [16]. From Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Project, there are several sets of future meteorological variables produced from five RCMs (Hadgem3-RA, RegCM-V4, YSU-RSM, SNU-MM5, SNU-WRF) that dynamically downscaled Hedgem2-AO. Future PMPs of Korea are projected using the hydro-meteorological method based on future meteorological variables produced from three CORDEX RCMs (Hadgem3-RA, RegCM-V4, YSU-RSM). The variability in an ensemble of future PMPs generated using various RCMs and RCPs (Representative concentration pathways) can be investigated
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