Numerical forecasting of the time interval between successive M8 earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, southwest Japan, using ocean bottom cable network data

Abstract

One possible approach to estimating the time interval between large-scale Tōnankai (Tōkai) and Nankai earthquakes on the Japan arc is sequential assimilation of crustal deformation data. We conducted numerical modeling of sequential assimilation using surface deformation calculated from earthquake generation cycle simulations along the Nankai Trough. To account for observation noise, we used measured ocean bottom pressure gauge data, excluding tidal modulation, from a station on the ocean bottom cable network Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Kumano basin. We used sequential importance sampling as our data assimilation method. We found that as the amount of data increased, the estimated time interval between the Tōnankai and Nankai earthquakes approached the “true” observed interval. In addition, the noise in the pressure gauge data was sufficiently small that simulated crustal deformation patterns could be distinguished for different time intervals.