Abstract
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of SIR model (Susceptible- Infected-Removed) in predicting the future development of infectious disease causedby SARS-CoV-2 virus for the Indian state of Odisha. This model helps inchecking the effectiveness of controlling measures like lockdown policiesand helps in framing new strategies to control the spread of the disease.We formulate a set of differential equations to find the rate of change ofsusceptible, infected and removed population with respect to time and solveit using Euler’s method. Using the cumulative data of confirmed cases, wetry to find the answers to the question of COVID-19 surge. Also, through thiswe predict the trend in the spread of covid-19 in the state for the next fewmonths. The analysis includes data from March 1 (which is marked as thestart of second wave of COVID) to June 28, 2021. We propose predictionson various parameters and factors related to the spread of COVID-19 andon the number of susceptible, infected and removed population until June 2021. By comparing the daily recorded data with the data from our modelingapproaches, we conclude that the spread of COVID-19 can be under controlin all communities, if proper lockdown restrictions and strong policies areimplemented to control the infection rates.
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