Abstract
This paper examines the geographic factors that are associated with the spread of COVID-19 during the first wave in Sweden. We focus particularly on the role of place-based factors versus factors associated with the spread or diffusion of COVID-19 across places. Sweden is a useful case study to examine the interplay of these factors because it did not impose mandatory lockdowns and because there were essentially no regional differences in the pandemic policies or strategies during the first wave of COVID-19. We examine the role of place-based factors like density, age structures and different socioeconomic factors on the geographic variation of COVID-19 cases and on deaths, across both municipalities and neighborhoods. Our findings show that factors associated with diffusion matter more than place-based factors in the geographic incidence of COVID-19 in Sweden. The most significant factor of all is proximity to places with higher levels of infections. COVID-19 is also higher in places that were hit earliest in the outbreak. Of place-based factors, the geographic variation in COVID-19 is most significantly related to the presence of high-risk nursing homes, and only modestly associated with factors like density, population size, income and other socioeconomic characteristics of places.
Highlights
Why does COVID-19 hit some places harder than others? What are the characteristics of some places that leave them more vulnerable to the virus? What factors influence and shape the geographic variation and diffusion in COVID-19 across1 3 Vol.:(0123456789)R
It was speculated that population size and especially density played a central role in the geography of COVID-19
This research has examined the role of place-based versus diffusion factors in the geographic incidence of COVID-19 in Sweden during the first wave of the COVID19 pandemic from February to the beginning of August 2020
Summary
Why does COVID-19 hit some places harder than others? What are the characteristics of some places that leave them more vulnerable to the virus? What factors influence and shape the geographic variation and diffusion in COVID-19 across. It was speculated that population size and especially density played a central role in the geography of COVID-19 This is likely because the earliest wave of the pandemic hit hardest at large global cities like New York and London. A number of studies have focused on the geographic factors that are associated with the diffusion or spread of COVID-19 across places. We focus on the role of diffusion factors as well as place-based characteristics in the spread of the virus over the entire first wave of the pandemic in Sweden, roughly February to early August 2020. The geographic variation in COVID-19 is only modestly associated with other place-based factors like density, population size and the socioeconomic characteristics of places. The place-based socioeconomic variables explain little of the geographic variation in COVID-19 across Sweden. The concluding section highlights the key findings and discusses their relationship to prior research and what we know about the geography of COVID-19 generally
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