Number Needed to Treat and Number Needed to Harm analysis of the zuranolone phase 2 clinical trial results in major depressive disorder

Abstract

BackgroundZuranolone (SAGE-217) is a novel, investigational positive allosteric modulator of GABAA receptors being investigated in major depressive disorder (MDD). This analysis of phase 2 data quantified the benefit and risk of zuranolone (30mg) versus placebo and antidepressants in terms of number needed to treat (NNT) and number needed to harm (NNH). MethodsRates of response, remission, and all-cause discontinuation for zuranolone and 11 antidepressant comparators were obtained from the zuranolone phase 2 clinical study (N=89) and a published network meta-analysis, respectively. An indirect treatment comparison was conducted using the Bucher method to compare zuranolone to standard-of-care. ResultsZuranolone demonstrated greater benefit compared to placebo on Day 3 (NNT range for response=4-5, NNT for remission=10) and at Day 15 (NNT=3 for response and remission). Compared to SSRIs and SNRIs, zuranolone at Day 15 showed improved treatment response (NNT=4 [95% CI = 3; 16] and 5 [95% CI = 3; 25], respectively) and remission (NNT=4 [95% CI = 2; 13] and 4 [95% CI = 2; 18], respectively). This was accompanied by a reduction in all-cause discontinuation, with negative NNH values (−57 and −28), respectively. LimitationsVariations in study design across the included trials may limit the generalizability of results. ConclusionsWith a small positive NNT as early as Day 3 indicating robust benefit and a negative NNH indicating reduced harm, this analysis based on a phase 2 study suggests that patients with MDD may benefit from the benefit-to-risk profile of zuranolone.