Nuclear threats

Abstract

Although significant nuclear disarmament is on the cards, the existence of nuclear weapons will continue to threaten national and international security. The main threats created by nuclear weapons are discussed in detail. Future nuclear arsenals will be much smaller than they were, but perceptions will still grow that an effective nuclear first‐strike may be possible and perhaps even desirable. Such perceptions will destabilize international relations and may lead to a nuclear war. A more serious nuclear threat arises from the spread of nuclear weapons to countries that do not now have them; the more nuclear weapon powers there are the greater the risk of nuclear war. A third nuclear threat is nuclear terrorism. There is a considerable risk that sub‐national groups, including terrorists and even small groups of criminals, will in the future acquire fissile material ‐ particularly plutonium — and construct a nuclear explosive. Plutonium should not be removed from spent nuclear‐reactor fuel elements in commercial reprocessing plants; the element should be directly disposed of in long‐term disposal sites.