Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East: Iran and Israel

Abstract

Since the early 2000s the nuclear non-proliferation regime has been seriously challenged, particularly by North Korea and Iran. In the Middle East, following the toppling of Saddam Hussein's regime by an American-led international coalition, the international community's attention has focused on Iran's nuclear programme. The United States claims that Iran is actively seeking to develop nuclear weapons. The European Union, led by the United Kingdom, France and Germany, and the International Atomic Energy Agency agree with their counterparts in Washington that a nuclear Iran would pose a serious challenge to strategic stability in the Middle East and Central Asia. The EU and the IAEA, however, are focused more on carrots (diplomacy and economic incentives) and less on sticks (military force). Iranian officials categorically deny any interest in acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran's nuclear programme should not be addressed in isolation from other regional dynamics. It cannot be fully understood without reference to the only nuclear power in the Middle East – Israel. This study examines nuclear proliferation in Iran and Israel. It analyses the motivation and the capability of both countries as well as the possibility of a pre-emptive Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear installations. The paper argues that the non-proliferation regime needs to be re-examined to accommodate the growing need for nuclear technology without converting it into nuclear weapons.