Nuclear power technologies development: Historical track and future evolution

Abstract

Understanding the evolution mechanism of nuclear power technology development is crucial for predicting its future path and devising a sound strategic plan. While classical economic theory provides the relationships between of technological progress and economic growth on specific assumptions, it is necessary to explore the evolutionary mechanism of technology development without prior assumptions. Furthermore, given the various forms of technological development, including basic research, patent technology, and product trade, the intricate relationship between them and economic growth necessitates further elucidation. This study aims to shed light on the evolutionary process of nuclear power technology development by constructing complex systems of “Science-Technology-Product-Economic growth,” applying Bayesian dynamic system modeling methods to establish the evolutionary equation of the complex systems and revealing the historical track and future evolution of nuclear power technology development. This study offers a fresh perspective to unravel the evolution of nuclear power technology development, facilitates a nuanced characterization of energy technology progress, and assists in developing an optimized learning curve for energy technology.