Nuclear Learning from the Past: “Able Archer” and the 1983 War Scare

Abstract

In this chapter, we revisit the year 1983 and the collision course on which the Americans and Soviets found themselves in that momentous time. Political relations between the United States and the Soviet Union were marked by the Reagan administration’s defense buildup and assertive rhetoric toward the USSR, which Moscow, in turn, reciprocated with considerable brio. A series of events, including NATO’s commitment to its “572” European theater ballistic and cruise missile deployments, in response to earlier Soviet deployments of intermediate range SS-20 nuclear missiles, and a Soviet intelligence tasking for indicators of an American and NATO imminent decision to launch a nuclear first strike against the Soviet Union and/or its Warsaw Pact allies, all contributed to a scenario of unintended escalation. Into this mix, NATO added a command post exercise, Able Archer, in November of 1983 that included simulated procedures for nuclear release. The case study might hold lessons for NATO and Russia as they exit the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 and open the door to renewed deployments of nuclear-capable intermediate- and shorter-range missiles in Europe.