NOx formation model for utility boilers using robust two-step steady-state detection and multimodal residual convolutional auto-encoder

Abstract

BackgroundTo achieve carbon neutrality, thermal power plants will take on greater peak-shaving responsibilities, resulting in utility boilers running at more frequently-changing states. This variation inevitably contributes to dirtier measurement data, and the data will follow new distributions that represent asynchronous operational characteristics. MethodTo predict the NOx formation concentration in this new context, a novel modelling framework is proposed. First, a two-step steady-state detection algorithm, including a basic and a precise identification procedure, is proposed to select steady-state samples from operational data. This algorithm also combines with a bayesian optimization–variational mode decomposition (BO–VMD) approach to enhance its robustness by eliminating high-frequency noise, and with an empirical cumulative distribution based outlier detection (ECOD) to remove outliers. Therefore, a high-quality steady-state dataset is acquired. Based on these data, a multimodal residual convolutional auto-encoder is developed to extract the latent variables that vary with the operation modes. These variables are then used to construct the multimodal NOx prediction model. Significant findingsThe findings on a 660 MW utility boiler reveal that, the proposed modelling framework has a lower misdiagnosis rate in steady-state identification compared to the one-step detection technique, and achieves higher fitting and generalization accuracy than the global modelling method.