Novel SIVR epidemic spreading model with virus variation in complex networks

Abstract

Recent researches find that there are tight relations between virus variation and epidemic. Creature evolution, ecological environment and medical sources will lead to epidemic variation in the spreading process. Complex networks portray a multitude of interactions through which infectious diseases propagate in a society. In order to study the dynamics of epidemic spreading with virus variation, a new epidemic spreading SIVR model (Susceptible-Infective-Variant-Recovery) is proposed. This model extends the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Recovery (SIR) epidemic spreading model with considering variation affection of two different virus in the process of epidemic spreading. Mean-field equations of SIVR model are derived by describing the dynamics behaviors of the variable virus in complex networks. Then steady-state analysis for this model is conducted to investigate the process of epidemic spreading under different spreading rate, recovery rate, variant rate, and the average degree of networks. Meanwhile, different epidemic immunization strategies are discussed for the immunization threshold in homogeneous networks. Numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate the relationship between the factors of the epidemic spreading. The results play an important role in preventing and controlling the spreading of variable virus.