Novel optimized coupled rainfall model simulation based on stepwise decomposition technique.

Abstract

Precipitation forecasting plays a pivotal role in guiding the effective management of regional water resources and providing crucial warnings for regional droughts and floods. Finding a monthly precipitation simulation model with robust fitting performance is a significant research endeavor in practical precipitation prediction. This paper introduces two modified African vulture optimization algorithms (MAVOA1 and MAVOA2). It provides hyperparameter optimization techniques for the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), and random forest (RF) models. These techniques are used to construct a monthly precipitation simulation model based on algorithmic optimization coupled with variational mode decomposition for full decomposition. The test results at five typical stations in the North China Plain reveal the following: (1) the LSSVM model demonstrates significantly better performance than the LSTM and RF models. (2) the MAVOA2-LSSVM model has the best-integrated effect: the average test fitting error is RMSE = 17.50 mm/month, MRE = 117.25%, NSE = 0.90, which shows its superiority in practical application and can significantly improve the accuracy of precipitation prediction; MAVOA2 is more suitable for machine learning models with more hyperparameters of its own, which provides a reference for hyperparameter optimization algorithms in the other fields.