Novel High-Precision Grey Forecasting Model and its Application of Deformation of Tunnel Surrounding Rock

Abstract

Accurately estimating the deformation of tunnel surrounding rock is a very important work for surveyors, and we adopted grey model as a forecasting means because of its fast calculation with as few as four data inputs needed, however, the original GM (1, 1) model is not fit for dynamic and long data prediction. For this purpose, we propose a novel approach to improve prediction accuracy of GM(1,1) model through optimization of the initial condition and adoption the technique of rolling modeling, the new forecasting model termed RnGM(1,1). By using the optimized model to analyze and predict the deformation of tunnel surrounding rock and comparing this optimized model with other models, we finally draw a conclusion that this optimized model is able to improve the precision of prediction and therefore can be applied to deformation data analysis.