Abstract
The main objective of this study is to estimate the future COVID-19 mortality rate for India using COVID-19 mortality rate models from different countries. Here, the regression method with the optimal hyperparameter is used to build these models. In the literature, numerous mortality models for infectious diseases have been proposed, most of which predict future mortality by extending one or more disease-related attributes or parameters. But most of these models predict mortality rates from historical data. In this paper, the Gaussian process regression model with the optimal hyperparameter is used to develop the COVID-19 mortality rate prediction (MRP) model. Five different MRP models have been built for the U.S., Italy, Germany, Japan, and India. The results show that Germany has the lowest death rate in 2000 plus COVID-19 confirmed cases. Therefore, if India follows the strategy pursued by Germany, India will control the COVID-19 mortality rate even in the increase of confirmed cases.
Highlights
More than one million people around the world face the severe consequences of the outbreak of the novel Coronavirus 2019
The results show that Germany has the lowest death rate in 2000 plus COVID-19 confirmed cases
An experiment is carried out to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed methodology for Morality Rate Prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic in India
Summary
More than one million people around the world face the severe consequences of the outbreak of the novel Coronavirus 2019 (nCov). The first case of human infection by a nCov or Wuhan virus or 2019- nCov was reported in Wuhan, China. The greatest challenge of this infectious disease is the human-to-human transition of nCov that would rise up the infected cases exponentially. On 30 January 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) issued a worldwide health emergency warning notice, designating that 2019-nCoV is of urgent global concern. The morbidity and mortality rates for the infection of 2019-nCoV are uncertain at the early stage (Sparrow 2020) especially for young ones and aged people. WHO has estimated the reproduction factor (R0) of nCov is 2.7. In order to control the wide and quick spread of the nCov, public health sectors took reliable preventative
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