North American COVID-19 Myocardial Infarction (NACMI) Risk Score for Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality.

Abstract

BackgroundIn-hospital mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is higher in those with COVID-19 than in those without COVID-19. The factors that predispose to this mortality rate and their relative contribution are poorly understood. This study developed a risk score inclusive of clinical variables to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 and STEMI.MethodsBaseline demographic, clinical, and procedural data from patients in the North American COVID-19 Myocardial Infarction registry were extracted. Univariable logistic regression was performed using candidate predictor variables, and multivariable logistic regression was performed using backward stepwise selection to identify independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Independent predictors were assigned a weighted integer, with the sum of the integers yielding the total risk score for each patient.ResultsIn-hospital mortality occurred in 118 of 425 (28%) patients. Eight variables present at the time of STEMI diagnosis (respiratory rate of >35 breaths/min, cardiogenic shock, oxygen saturation of <93%, age of >55 ​years, infiltrates on chest x-ray, kidney disease, diabetes, and dyspnea) were assigned a weighted integer. In-hospital mortality increased exponentially with increasing integer risk score (Cochran-Armitage χ2, P ​< ​.001), and the model demonstrated good discriminative power (c-statistic ​= ​0.81) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow, P ​= ​.40). The increasing risk score was strongly associated with in-hospital mortality (3.6%-60% mortality for low-risk and very high–risk score categories, respectively).ConclusionsThe risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 and STEMI can be accurately predicted and discriminated using readily available clinical information.