Novel Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Approaches to Precisely Predict Survival and Site-Specific Recurrence in Cervical Cancer: A Multi-Institutional Study

Abstract

Abstract Background Machine learning (ML) has been gradually integrated into oncologic research but seldom applied to predict cervical cancer (CC), and no model has been reported to predict survival and site-specific recurrence simultaneously. Thus, we aimed to develop ML models to predict survival and site-specific recurrence in CC and to guide individual surveillance. Methods We retrospectively collected data on CC patients from 2006 to 2017 in four hospitals. The survival or recurrence predictive value of the variables was analyzed using multivariate Cox, principal component, and K-means clustering analyses. The predictive performances of eight ML models were compared with logistic or Cox models. A novel web-based predictive calculator was developed based on the ML algorithms. Results This study included 5112 women for analysis (268 deaths, 343 recurrences): (1) For site-specific recurrence, larger tumor size was associated with local recurrence, while positive lymph nodes were associated with distant recurrence. (2) The ML models exhibited better prognostic predictive performance than traditional models. (3) The ML models were superior to traditional models when multiple variables were used. (4) A novel predictive web-based calculator was developed and externally validated to predict survival and site-specific recurrence. Conclusion ML models might be a better analytic approach in CC prognostic prediction than traditional models as they can predict survival and site-specific recurrence simultaneously, especially when using multiple variables. Moreover, our novel web-based calculator may provide clinicians with useful information and help them make individual postoperative follow-up plans and further treatment strategies.