Abstract
This paper discusses a deterministic model of the spread of an infectious disease in a closed population that was proposed byKermack &McKendrick (1927). The mathematical assumptions on which the model is based are listed and criticized. The ‘threshold theorem’ according to which an epidemic develops if, and only if, the initial population density exceeds a certain value determined by the parameters of the model, is discussed. It is shown that the theorem is not true. A weaker result is stated and proved.
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