Modelling the effects of media coverage and quarantine on the COVID-19 infections in the UK.

Abstract

A new COVID-19 epidemic model with media coverage and quarantine is constructed. The model allows for the susceptibles to the unconscious and conscious susceptible compartment. First, mathematical analyses establish that the global dynamics of the spread of the COVID-19 infectious disease are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R0. If R0 ≤ 1, then the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If R0 > 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Second, the unknown parameters of model are estimated by the MCMC algorithm on the basis of the total confirmed new cases from February 1, 2020 to March 23, 2020 in the UK. We also estimate that the basic reproduction number is R0 = 4.2816(95%CI: (3.8882, 4.6750)). Without the most restrictive measures, we forecast that the COVID-19 epidemic will peak on June 2 (95%CI: (May 23, June 13)) (Figure 3a) and the number of infected individuals is more than 70% of UK population. In order to determine the key parameters of the model, sensitivity analysis are also explored. Finally, our results show reducing contact is effective against the spread of the disease. We suggest that the stringent containment strategies should be adopted in the UK.