Abstract
Future power production in Europe is expected to include large shares of variable wind and solar power production. Norway, with approximately half of the hydropower reservoir capacity in Europe, can contribute to balance the variability. The aim of this paper is to assess how such a role may impact the Norwegian hydropower system in terms of production pattern of the plants, changes in reservoir level and water values. The study uses a stochastic optimization and simulation model and analyses an eHighway2050 scenario combined with increases in the hydropower production capacities in Norway. The capacity increases from ca. 31 GW in the present system to 42 and 50 GW respectively. The study uses 75 years with stochastic wind, solar radiation, temperature and inflow data. The results show that the hydropower system is able to partly balance the variable production and significantly reduce the power prices for the analyzed case. The paper shows that some of the power plants utilize their increased capacity, while other plants do not due to hydrological constraints and model limitations. The paper discusses how the modelling can be further improved in order to quantify more of the potential impacts on the future power system.
Highlights
The European Union (EU) has set itself a long-term goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80–95% by 2050, when compared to 1990 levels
The future power system in Europe is analyzed with the stochastic optimization model EMPS
The simulations are sequentially run for the 75 years with stochastic input data
Summary
The European Union (EU) has set itself a long-term goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80–95% by 2050, when compared to 1990 levels. Reduction of the emissions from the energy and the power systems are very important in this case. The future power system will probably include much higher shares of renewable resources like wind, solar and hydro. Wind and solar resources are variable and hydropower can contribute to balance the variability. Hydropower differs from other renewable resources due to its large flexibility and storage capability when coupled to a reservoir. Hydropower has extremely short response times and the ability to black start. Together with its flexibility and energy storage potential, these characteristics enables hydropower to enhance the performance of all renewable technologies and act as a “battery” that can smooth out total output from variable renewables resources [1]
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