Abstract
The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km2 in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas. We predict a major species turnover over time, with 49% of total protected land area potentially experiencing a species turnover >80%. We also predict increases in regional species richness, representativity of protected areas, and species protection provided by protected areas. Although we did not model the likelihood of species colonising habitats that become suitable as a result of climate change, northern protected areas should ultimately become important refuges for species tracking climate northward. This is the first study to examine in such details the potential effects of climate change on a northern protected area network.
Highlights
Protected area networks are our most valuable resource for in situ conservation of global biodiversity[1], many studies have tried to project future impacts of climate change on protected areas[2,3]
This expected northward expansion of species ranges in the northern hemisphere and the potential increase of regional species richness that this might incur have been coined as the Northern Biodiversity Paradox[18]
In support of this hypothesis, several large scale studies have highlighted a potential increase in species richness in northern and temperate regions[2,13,19], and a few have focused on regions where biodiversity could potentially increase due to climate change[20,21,22]
Summary
Protected area networks are our most valuable resource for in situ conservation of global biodiversity[1], many studies have tried to project future impacts of climate change on protected areas[2,3]. Significant disruption of current species assemblages has been predicted inside protected areas[3,6] These impacts of climate change challenge our definition of the protected area’s concept. In temperate regions of the northern hemisphere, ectothermic species like amphibians might expand their distribution in response to warming if dispersal of individuals is allowed[17]. This expected northward expansion of species ranges in the northern hemisphere and the potential increase of regional species richness that this might incur have been coined as the Northern Biodiversity Paradox[18]. We discuss the implications of our findings for biodiversity conservation and protected area management in cold climate regions
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