Northern Ireland

Abstract

Abstract Chapter 3 by Katy Hayward examines in depth the political and sociological situation of Northern Ireland. In her contribution, Hayward explores the identity cleavages in Northern Ireland, tracking electoral preferences from the Brexit referendum to the entry into force of the Protocol. As Hayward underlines, in Northern Ireland religion remains a proxy of political preferences. As she points out on the basis of opinion polls conducted over the period between 2016 and 2021, while Northern Ireland had by majority voted against leaving the EU, Unionist parties in Ulster had mostly supported Brexit. Similarly, all Unionist parties are now opposing the Protocol, which is instead largely favoured by Republican parties. In this context of political polarization, however, Hayward emphasizes the growing demographic importance of the non-aligned groups, meaning the political forces and voters who do not identify either as Catholic/Republican or Protestant/Unionist, and suggests that their current support for the Protocol will be likely to tip the balance in favour of retaining it at the next consent vote in 2024.