Abstract
Northern Ireland's 2010 Westminster election saw the dramatic unseating of the First Minister, Peter Robinson, from his East Belfast seat by the cross-community Alliance Party. Beyond the headline scalp, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein continued to dominate the Unionist and Nationalist electoral blocs, with Sinn Fein holding its five seats. This success raised the outside possibility of Sinn Fein providing the First Minister after the 2011 Assembly elections, although Unionists appeared likely to minimise such a risk through electoral pacts or even party mergers. The 2010 election highlighted the failure of the Ulster Unionist Party's (UUP) alliance with the Conservative Party, an association which cost the UUP its remaining Westminster seat. Meanwhile, despite some excitable chatter regarding amelioration of Northern Ireland's sectarian voting patterns and Alliance's unexpected success, aggregate constituency data suggest that the link between religion and party affiliation remains as strong as ever. The discernible change was not disaffiliation of religion and voting links, but instead, a sharp decline in turnout.
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