Nonstationary thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to the interannual variability of winter sea ice growth in the Kara-Laptev Seas

Abstract

Abstract The Kara-Laptev Seas (KLS), known as the “Ice Factory of the Arctic”, witnesses rising instead of falling winter sea ice growth (WSIG) under the shrinkage of Arctic ice. However, knowledge of the large year-to-year variation is still unclear. Combining a seasonal ice concentration budget, a composite analysis, and a typical case study, we study both the interannual variability of WSIG in the KLS and the associated air-sea forcings during 1985–2021. Results quantitatively reveal that, during 1985–2021, thermodynamic melt in the melting season (Apr–Aug) contributed 80.3% to the interannual ice loss difference and promoted the subsequent WSIG by the recovery mechanism in the KLS. This consistent thermodynamic melt is caused by the strengthened summer Beaufort High, transporting heat and introducing a locally positive ice-albedo feedback. However, since 2010, the dynamic growth during the freezing season (Oct–Feb) has increasingly stimulated the WSIG. Typical cases in 2013 and 2017 indicate that the overlying anticyclonic atmospheric regime restricts the ice drift from the KLS and contributes to the dynamic growth of 41.6% of the WSIG difference, while the turbulent-heat-induced thermodynamic growth in winter is down to 58.4%. In short, we reveal an unstable relationship between the summer ice loss and the subsequent WSIG under the background of Arctic warming. Our study points out that the distinct dynamic ice growth driven by surface winds or ocean currents during the freezing season is likely to increase in the near future, with thinner and more mobile seasonal ice predominating in the Arctic.